Betting Hypothesis: Is it smart to fade the public when they’re heavily betting on one team?
Often times, a betting line delivers some very uneven action, typically favoring the visitor. Does Vegas use these lines to sucker the public into betting? What else can we learn from these one-sided lines?
How this trend fares, along with some team specifics, inside!
By my count, there were a total of 125 games since the start of the 2013 season where 75% or more of the bets were placed on one team.
Out of those 125 games, a total of 30 of them had at least 85% of the bets on one side, and I was able to draw the following conclusions.
1. Heavily bet teams (75% or more) are 63-63-4 ATS since the start of 2013
2. Superheavily bet teams (85% or more) are 10-19-1 ATS since the start of 2013 (Teams that aren’t the Broncos are 7-18-1 ATS since the start of 2013)
4. Heavily bet teams are 29-22 ATS in 2014
5. Superheavily bet teams are 6-6 ATS in 2014
Interestingly, Vegas doesn’t have any edge in heavily bet games, but they do once there’s an overwhelming majority on one team. It’s safe to fade teams where 85% or more of the bets are on them, but between 75-84% is inconclusive, and really not an indicator of much.
Certain other trends popped up though out of this data, which were interesting. Since the start of 2013, here’s the ATS records for certain teams when they’ve got 75% or more of the bets on them. (Their ATS record when 85% or more of the bet is on them is in parentheses)
Indianapolis Colts: 8-3-1 (2-2-1)
Denver: 7-3 (3-1)
Arizona: 4-0 (0-0)
San Diego: 0-4 (0-2)
New England: 6-4 (1-2)
New Orleans: 3-7-1 (0-2)
Seattle: 3-6 (0-2)
Other teams either didn’t post a large number of heavily bet games, or they had records around ~.500 and weren’t noteworthy.
So, in short:
1. Vegas seems to have a good bead on games with 75%+ of the action on one side. Strictly fading or betting with the public does you no good (-750 if you bet with the public, -540 if you faded the public)
2. On games with 85% of the action on one side, it’s very safe to fade the public in all instances (-1100 if you bet with the public, +790 if you faded them)
3. Some teams are very solid when the action is on their side, albeit it’s all subject to Small Sample Sizes.
The raw data is posted below. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, or something like that.
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Week 12 Update: For those who are coming here from walterfootball.com… welcome! Feel free to look at other pages here. Everything above was accurate when posted on 11-17-2014, but just to update the trends…
1. Heavily bet teams (75%+) are 65-68-5 ATS Since the start of 2013.
2. Superheavily bet teams (85%+) are 11-20-1 ATS Since the start of 2013.
3. Superheavily bet teams who are NOT quarterbacked by Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning are 5-16 ATS since the start of 2013.
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Game Spread Public Side Public % ATS Winner Win?
Saints/Falcons Saints -3 Saints 78 Falcons 0
Steelers/Browns Steelers -7 Steelers 75 Browns 0
Jaguars/Eagles Eagles -10 Eagles 75 Eagles 1
Bills/Bears Bears -6.5 Bears 84 Bills 0
Patriots/Dolphins Patriots -5 Patriots 82 Dolphins 0
Patriots/Vikings Patriots -3 Patriots 85 Patriots 1
Saints/Browns Saints -5 Saints 92 Browns 0
Seahawks/Chargers Seahawks -4.5 Seahawks 76 Chargers 0
Cowboys/Rams Cowboys -2 Cowboys 87 Cowboys 1
Vikings/Saints Saints -10 Saints 84 Saints 1
Titans/Bengals Bengals -7 Bengals 78 Bengals 1
Colts/Jaguars Colts -6.5 Colts 85 Colts 1
49’ers/Cardinals 49’ers -3 49’ers 79 Cardinals 0
Titans/Colts Colts -7 Colts 80 Colts 1
Falcons/Vikings Falcons -3 Falcons 83 Vikings 0
Vikings/Packers Packers -8 Packers 80 Packers 0
Bears/Panthers Panthers -2 Bears 79 Panthers 0
Steelers/Jaguars Steelers -6 Steelers 80 Steelers 1
Seahawks/Redskins Seahawks -7 Seahawks 78 Seahawks 1
Colts/Texans Colts -3 Colts 75 Colts 1
Broncos/Jets Broncos -9.5 Broncos 89 Broncos 1
Patriots/Bills Patriots -3 Patriots 78 Patriots 1
Chargers/Raiders Chargers -7 Chargers 85 Raiders 0
49’ers/Rams 49’ers -3.5 49’ers 86 49’ers 1
Bengals/Colts Colts-3 Colts 75 Colts 1
Seahawks/Rams Sehawks -6 Seahawks 86 Rams 0
Cardinals/Raiders Cardinals -4 Cardinals 82 Cardinals 1
Seahawks/Panthers Seahawks -5.5 Seahawks 77 Panthers 0
Dolphins/Jaguars Dolphins -6.5 Dolphins 80 Dolphins 1
Texans/Titans Texans -3.5 Texans 84 Texans 1
Colts/Steelers Colts -3.5 Colts 89 Steelers 0
Packers/Saints Saints -1 Packers 75 Saints 0
Redskins/Cowboys Cowboys -10.5 Cowboys 75 Redskins 0
Chargers/Dolphins Dolphins -1 Chargers 79 Dolphins 0
Eagles/Texans Eagles -2 Eagles 78 Eagles 1
Cardinals/Cowboys Cardinals -1.5 Cardinals 84 Cardinals 1
Rams/49’ers 49’ers -10 49’ers 78 Rams 0
Colts/Giants Colts -3 Colts 78 Colts 1
Browns/Bengals Bengals -7 Bengals 75 Browns 0
Cowboys/Jaguars Cowboys-7 Cowboys 81 Cowboys 1
Titans/Ravens Ravens -10 Ravens 80 Ravens 1
Steelers/Jets Steelers -6 Steelers 89 Jets 0
Falcons/Buccaneers Falcons -3 Falcons 78 Falcons 1
Broncos/Raiders Broncos -12 Broncos 92 Broncos 1
Rams/Cardinals Cardinals -7 Cardinals 77 Cardinals 1
Bears/Packers Packers -8 Packers 84 Packers 1
Chiefs/Jaguars Chiefs -4 Chiefs 83 Chiefs 1
Bengals/Bears Bears -3 Bengals 76 None! –
Raiders/Colts Colts -10 Colts 89 Raiders 0
Texans/Chargers Texans -5 Texans 86 Chargers 0
Chargers/Eagles Eagles -7 Eagles 75 Chargers 0
Browns/Ravens Ravens -7 Ravens 80 Ravens 1
Saints/Buccaneers Saints -3 Saints 84 Buccaneers 0
Vikings/Browns Vikings -6.5 Vikings 87 Browns 0
Packers/Bengals Packers -3 Packers 86 Bengals 0
Giants/Panthers Giants -1 Giants 87 Panthers 0
Falcons/Dolphins Dolphins -2.5 Falcons 78 Dolphins 0
Bears/Steelers Bears -1.5 Bears 78 Bears 1
Raiders/Broncos Broncos -15 Broncos 75 Broncos 1
49’ers/Rams 49’ers -3 49’ers 81 49’ers 1
Ravens/Bills Ravens -3 Ravens 81 Bills 0
Bengals/Browns Bengals -4 Bengals 80 Browns 0
Colts/Jaguars Colts -8 Colts 85 Colts 1
Chiefs/Titans Chiefs -2.5 Chiefs 85 Chiefs 1
Saints/Bears Saints -1 Saints 75 Saints 1
Panthers/Cardinals Panthers -2.5 Panthers 78 Cardinals 0
Chargers/Raiders Chargers -6 Chargers 84 Raiders 0
Broncos/Cowboys Broncos -7 Broncos 82 Cowboys 0
Jets/Falcons Falcons -9.5 Falcons 78 Jets 0
Eagles/Buccaneers Eagles -2.5 Eagles 78 Eagles 1
Titans/Seahawks Seahawks -11.5 Seahawks 77 Titans 0
Colts/Chargers Colts -1.5 Colts 75 Chargers 0
Patriots/Jets Patriots -4 Patriots 81 Jets 0
49’ers/Titans 49’ers -4 49’ers 80 49’ers 1
Chiefs/Texans Chiefs -6 Chiefs 75 Texans 0
Broncos/Colts Broncos -6 Broncos 80 Colts 0
Panthers/Buccaneers Panthers -6 Panthers 76 Panthers 1
49’ers/Jaguars 49’ers -14.5 49’ers 75 49’ers 1
Bills/Saints Saints -10.5 Saints 80 Saints 1
Dolphins/Patriots Patriots -6 Patriots 75 Patriots 1
Packers/Vikings Packers -7.5 Packers 76 Packers 1
Seahawks/Rams Seahawks -13 Seahawks 87 Rams 0
Bengals/Dolphins Bengals -3 Bengals 86 Dolphins 0
Vikings/Cowboys Cowboys -9 Cowboys 77 Vikings 0
Saints/Jets Saints -7 Saints 87 Jets 0
Eagles/Raiders Raiders -1 Raiders 76 Eagles 0
Buccaneers/Seahawks Seahawks -14.5 Seahawks 82 Buccaneers 0
Ravens/Browns Ravens -1.5 Ravens 79 Browns 0
Steelers/Patriots Patriots -6 Patriots 75 Patriots 1
Colts/Texans Colts -1 Colts 78 Colts 1
Vikings/Redskins Redskins -1 Redskins 77 Vikings 0
Panthers/49’ers 49’ers -5.5 49’ers 75 Panthers 0
Broncos/Chargers Broncos -7 Broncos 80 Broncos 1
Colts/Titans Colts -3 Colts 86 None! –
Lions/Steelers Lions -3 Lions 75 Steelers 0
Cardinals/Jaguars Cardinals -8 Cardinals 80 Cardinals 1
Chargers/Dolphins Chargers -2 Chargers 86 Dolphins 0
Vikings/Seahawks Seahawks -12.5 Seahawks 77 Seahawks 1
49’ers/Saints Saints -3 Saints 83 None! –
Saints/Falcons Saints -7.5 Saints 82 Falcons 0
Panthers/Dolphins Panthers -5 Panthers 77 Dolphins 0
Steelers/Browns Browns -1 Steelers 75 Steelers 1
Jets/Ravens Ravens -4 Ravens 81 Ravens 1
49’ers/Redskins 49’ers -5 49’ers 82 49’ers 1
Patriots/Texans Patriots -7 Patriots 86 Texans 0
Giants/Redskins Redskins -1 Giants 82 Giants 1
Chiefs/Redskins Chiefs -3.5 Chiefs 92 Chiefs 1
Vikings/Ravens Ravens -6 Ravens 83 Vikings 0
Browns/Patriots Patriots -9.5 Patriots 85 Browns 0
Titans/Broncos Broncos -13.5 Broncos 77 Broncos 1
49’ers/Buccaneers 49’ers -4 49’ers 84 49’ers 1
Seahawks/Giants Seahawks -9 Seahawks 77 Seahawks 1
Texans/Colts Colts -4.5 Colts 77 Colts 1
Eagles/Vikings Eagles -6 Eagles 88 Vikings 0
Panthers/Jets Panthers -11 Panthers 77 Jets 0
Chiefs/Raiders Chiefs -5.5 Chiefs 92 Chiefs 1
Saints/Rams Saints -6.5 Saints 83 Rams 0
Dolphins/Bills Dolphins -2.5 Dolphins 78 Bills 0
Colts/Chiefs Chiefs -7 Chiefs 78 Colts 0
Broncos/Texans Broncos -10 Broncos 88 Broncos 1
Titans/Jaguars Titans -4 Jaguars 75 None! –
Browns/Steelers Steelers -7.5 Steelers 84 Steelers 1
Bills/Patriots Patriots -7 Patriots 77 Patriots 1
Broncos/Raiders Broncos -11 Broncos 78 Broncos 1
Eagles/Cowboys Eagles -7 Eagles 75 Cowboys 0
Bengals/Saints Saints -7 Saints 77 Bengals 0
Broncos/Rams Broncos -10.5 Broncos 92 Rams 0
49’ers/Giants 49’ers -4.5 49’ers 75 49’ers 1
Eagles/Packers Packers -4.5 Packers 83 Packers 1
Patriots/Colts Colts -3 Patriots 77 Patriots 1
Steelers/Titans Steelers -6 Steelers 90 Titans 0 0
Chiefs/Raiders Chiefs -7 Chiefs 79 Raiders 0 0
Packers/Vikings Packers -9.5 Packers 87 Vikings 0 0
Dolphins/Broncos Broncos -7 Broncos 78 Dolphins 0 0
Redskins/49’ers 49’ers -9 49’ers 77 Redskins 0 0
Cowboys/Giants Cowboys -3.5 Cowboys 81 None! – 0
Lions/Patriots Patriots -7 Patriots 78 Patriots 1 0
Jaguars/Colts Colts -13.5 Colts 78 Colts 1 0
The Football Clod 