Breaking this into two categories. The “Reach” and “Should not be owned by anyone” categories.
Players People are Drafting Too Early
1. Jahvid Best (ADP: 5.05) - I loved Best’s talent in college. He was one of two players I saw in person who made me crap my pants whenever he touched the football (Jeremiah Masoli being the other). However, Best is made out of glass. He’s had numerous surgeries and has several concussions already in his career. How’s he going to hold up with stronger, faster, tougher linebackers in the NFL? Prognosis isn’t very good.
2. Darren McFadden (ADP: 8.10) - McFadden hasn’t done anything in two NFL seasons so far. Hard to think he’s suddenly going to turn that around. Michael Bush is going five picks later, he’s the Raiders RB you want on your roster. McFadden has late round value in a PPR league, but that’s about all.
3. Austin Collie (ADP: 11.12) - Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Donald Brown. Six guys who can do damage with Peyton Manning throwing to them. Not all of them will be fantasy relevant this year, and I suspect the odd man out is Austin Collie, a slot WR who will have to share targets with Anthony Gonzalez, who’s more athletic and more experienced.
4. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams (ADP: 4.10 and 6.11) - Considering Ronnie Brown is made out of glass and Ricky Williams is 33 and has a ton of mileage on his body, it’s hard to recommend drafting either of them. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them are on IR by the playoffs. That being said, if they’re healthy, they’re going to get carries. But I don’t think they’ll be around during the end of the year.
5. Thomas Jones (ADP: 7.12) - Jones is probably the #2 option in Kansas City behind Jamaal Charles. That being said, Todd Haley’s basically an idiot. You never know. Jones is old and is running behind a terrible offensive line in Kansas City. I wouldn’t touch him.
Players No One Should be Drafting, but Are
1. Vincent Jackson (ADP: 3.12) - He might play half a season. Maybe. He’s gotta show up for at least six games to have a year count towards Free Agency. That’s probably what to expect out of him. Until he blinks, assume that he won’t play until Week 10, and he will be rusty.
2. Donald Driver (ADP: 6.04) - Old, crowded WR spot, multiple surgeries. What’s there to like?
3. Wes Welker (ADP: 5.03) - Serious injury, won’t be playing until October, may not be 100% until 2011. Not an Avoid at All Costs, but I wouldn’t touch him earlier than Round 10.
4. Terrell Owens (ADP: 11.06) - I don’t know if it’s an old algorithim of a CPU that keeps drafting Owens, but it should be incredibly obvious that he has no relevance in fantasy football anymore, and probably no relevance in the NFL.
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